Thursday, January 21, 2021

Friday Thinking 22 Jan 2021

Friday Thinking is a humble curation of my foraging in the digital environment. Choices are based on my own curiosity and that suggest we are in the midst of a change in the conditions of change - a phase-transition. That tomorrow will be radically unlike yesterday.

Many thanks to those who enjoy this.
In the 21st Century curiosity is what skills the cat -
for life of skillful means .
Jobs are dying - Work is just beginning.
Work that engages our whole self becomes play that works.

The emerging world-of-connected-everything - digital environment - 
computational ecology - 
may still require humans as the consciousness of its own existence. 

To see red - is to know other colors - without the ground of others - there is no figure - differences that make a defference.  

‘There are times, ‘when I catch myself believing there is something which is separate from something else.’

“I'm not failing - I'm Learning"
Quellcrist Falconer - Altered Carbon


Content

Quotes:

Bruce Sterling - State of the World 2021

I am not I

An externalist approach to creativity: discovery versus recombination

Time Is the Universal Measure of Freedom


Articles:

THE SANTA CLARA PRINCIPLES

Only by taking leave of our senses can we plunge into reverie

As Wikipedia turns 20 it aims to reach more readers

A framework to assess the importance of variables for different predictive models

Drones could help create a quantum internet

Rare quadruple-helix DNA found in living human cells with glowing probes

Designer protein helps paralyzed mice walk again in breakthrough study

Inspired by kombucha tea, engineers create 'living materials'

Scientists make sustainable polymer from sugars in wood

Guy Struggles Picking Up His Parkinson’s Meds, TikToker Helps By Designing Pill Bottle For People With Shaky Hands

Yellow mealworm safe for humans to eat, says EU food safety agency

#micropoem






I think that this year the surveillance debate will improve.   I see hints of some new common-sense emerging.   It's a little bit like pitifully afraid of  wicked spies under the bed, but when you're actually governed by wicked spies, as the Russians are, you're less irrationally respectful of them, and you get a better understanding of their inherent limits as power-players.   Not that the problems go away, mind you; you just get a better grip on the existent situation.

Little Tech used to move fast and break things, but Big Tech moves slow and still breaks things, so they make a much easier target than they once did.  And, they know that.  So they're adjusting — but not nimbly.  They move like elephants now.

"Information wants to be free" is long over in MMXXI.  It was a historic moment, but it was replaced by the surveillance-capital Big Tech doctrine  "Information about you wants to be free to us."  

However, that profiteering doctrine also got old and stale, and the contemporary problem is an identity-politics crisis.  It's about the deeper, culture-war reality of Us not really being Us and You never really being You; the Jekyll-and-Hyde horror of having to denounce your own face in the mirror, while you have to batter the people  who love you best.

The Electronic Frontier's just not a frontier now, it's densely settled, it's got all kinds of wealth and infrastructure to quarrel over, and it's got a blooming plethora of economic, legal, social and ethical problems.


The WELL really was a purple-haze cyberspace ivory tower for quite a while, I can fondly remember how thrilling that was, but nowadays it is what it is, which is a funky little mom-and-pop legacy-media niche.  That's what the passage of time does, it's the nature of history and futurity, there's a melancholy beauty to it.  You shouldn't whine about it any more than you ought to wring your hands about the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

Bruce Sterling - State of the World 2021



In this way of thinking, we leave behind the western notion of the self-governing, independent individual for a different notion, of interdependent people whose identities are established in interaction with each other. From this perspective, individual change cannot be separated from changes in the groups to which an individual belongs. And changes in the groups don’t take place without the individuals changing. We form our groups and our followerships and they form us at the same time, all the time.

Identity is a pattern in time.

Richer connections and more challenging, more exploratory conversations leave people feeling more alive, more inspired and capable of far more.

I am not I




Arthur Schopenhauer stated that talent hits the target others cannot hit while genius hits the target others cannot see.

Consider two examples of mathematical creativity. In the first case, a student has to find a solution to a difficult algebraic problem. The student may apply all known rules and the solution lies somewhere inside the huge solution space offered by traditional mathematics. In the second case, consider the invention of imaginary numbers. They allow the solution of otherwise intractable mathematical problems but at the cost of expanding the original solution space. Creativity is involved in both cases, but there is a clear difference between the two. The former does not emerge from the original solution space, while the latter reaches a new state of affairs in the world (all those situation that may be conveniently modeled by imaginary numbers). Yet, even the second case is not a totally arbitrary addition to the original space. In fact, if one could arbitrarily add new rules, it would be possible to solve any problem simply by imagination. This is not the case. There is a sort of creative imagination that is able to provide new rules and a new solution space that have some sort of coherence with the external world.

An externalist approach to creativity: discovery versus recombination




Steward also saw consumerism as a way to achieve an industrialized democracy. Mass enjoyment of the prosperity that an industrial economy creates was necessary to keep the engine running; for Steward, “consumerism” meant the ability of workers to buy the things they need through their own fair share of what they were creating. He saw it as a method for harnessing and deploying working-class power as well as stabilizing the economy. He attacked those who used the concepts of thrift and self-denial to discipline the working-class. The “charge of extravagance” against working people “is made to sustain the claim that wages ought not to be any higher.” Consumerism wasn’t just about individuals satisfying their own desires and preferences, but a way for workers to claim a share of the economy that they produced for themselves. This consumerism allowed workers to build a culture and gain control over their time and neighborhoods, to keep their traditions and communities, and ease the experience of the often brutal working conditions they faced. Shorter working hours contribute to freedom by creating the time and cultural space necessary for civil society to thrive.

Time Is the Universal Measure of Freedom





As the 3rd decade of the 21st Century begins - it has become evident that social media and other media platforms - have some responsibilities regarding the protections of civil society - regarding hate speech and related contents - this is a signal of a good place to start.
So sure, condemn Parler, condemn Apple and Google for including them in the app stores, but please let's not pretend that "hate speech filters" exist as anything but grifty promises from overcapitalised snake-oil salesmen flogging their magic beans.

I am all for platforms (including app stores) having a variety of speech policies. After all, I expect different speech standards when I'm tucking my daughter in at night, when I'm in a professional meeting, when I'm having a conversation around a campfire, and when I'm in a political debate. I want to have a variety of conversational spaces that I can choose among based on my preferences about the suitability of the house rules to the context of the discourse I want to have.

Like the pandemic, Parler is revealing the latent fragility of our systems. Parler is vulnerable to takedown by a duopoly of app stores, by a oligopoly of cloud providers, by a tiny coterie of payment processors. [see state of the world 2021 - above]
Cory Doctorow

THE SANTA CLARA PRINCIPLES

On Transparency and Accountability in Content Moderation
These principles are meant to serve as a starting point, outlining minimum levels of transparency and accountability that we hope can serve as the basis for a more in-depth dialogue in the future.

On the occasion of the first Content Moderation at Scale conference in Santa Clara, CA on February 2nd, 2018, a small private workshop of organizations, advocates, and academic experts who support the right to free expression online was convened to consider how best to obtain meaningful transparency and accountability around internet platforms’ increasingly aggressive moderation of user-generated content.

Now, on the occasion of the second Content Moderation at Scale conference in Washington, DC on May 7th, 2018, we propose these three principles as initial steps that companies engaged in content moderation should take to provide meaningful due process to impacted speakers and better ensure that the enforcement of their content guidelines is fair, unbiased, proportional, and respectful of users’ rights.

- Companies should publish the numbers of posts removed and accounts permanently or temporarily suspended due to violations of their content guidelines.
- Companies should provide notice to each user whose content is taken down or account is suspended about the reason for the removal or suspension.
- Companies should provide a meaningful opportunity for timely appeal of any content removal or account suspension.


This is an important piece that should be a contributor to knowledge generation, learning, the future of work - if we want the best from ourselves in ways that can enable a flourishing society. Wouldn’t it be nice if everyone’s work had regular moments of reverie?

Only by taking leave of our senses can we plunge into reverie

If we are to understand reverie, we need to differentiate it from flow. The psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi describes the flow state as the subjective experience of engaging in just-manageable challenges by tackling a series of clear proximal goals. But first comes a preparation period whereby we immerse ourselves into a group of problematic themes that stir up our interest and curiosity. Does the difference between talent and genius, certainty and uncertainty, embodiment and ecstasy reside in differences between flow and reverie? That reverie is simply intense flow is questionable, since reverie can be a sudden illumination and feel perilous. Indeed, the Norwegian psychoanalyst Eystein VĂ¥penstad, quoting Steven Cooper, refers to ‘rougherie’.

Because reverie is indistinct, flow is better studied, and getting in among the material seems key to its initial stages. On hearing that ‘marble changes colour under different people’s hands’, the sculptor Barbara Hepworth realised that it was ‘not dominance which one had to attain over material, but an understanding, almost a kind of persuasion, and above all greater co-ordination between head and hand.’ Absorbed in playing or making, we process feedback on our progress, and adjust our actions accordingly. This holds whether playing Fortnite (ludic) or making pinch pots (aesthetic). Brain-imaging studies have begun to map the interconnected brain areas that contribute to flow states. But the well of suppressed experience and imagery, drawn upon in reverie in combination with the flickering fragility of the state itself, is not so amenable to study.


This is an amazing signal - for something nobody predicted because it was inconceivable as a business model. Imagine a world where Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms - were non-profit foundations? 
Wikipedia's non-profit status nature make it an outlier among today's internet dominated by the likes of Google and Facebook, and hark back to the web's early idealistic days when the open-source movement harnessed the talents of volunteers to offer free access to tools and knowledge.
That's really important that the next billion people, two billion people who come online are going to want to participate in Wikipedia, to grow their own storehouse of knowledge, and they're going to rely on us to support that work, and that's a big part of how I think about the future,

As Wikipedia turns 20 it aims to reach more readers

Wikipedia celebrates its 20th anniversary on Friday and the collaborative, volunteer-produced internet encyclopedia aims to spend the next 20 years further expanding free access to information.

Founded on January 15, 2001 by the American-British entrepreneur Jimmy Wales, Wikipedia is now the seventh-most popular website in the world, with its more than 55 million articles being consulted 15 billion times every month.

The website started in English but within two months had already launched in German and Swedish. It is now available in 309 languages.

But Wales doesn't intend to stop there, with the languages of the developing world in the website's sights.


This is an innovation in model making that is worth noting.

A framework to assess the importance of variables for different predictive models

Two researchers at Duke University have recently devised a useful approach to examine how essential certain variables are for increasing the reliability/accuracy of predictive models. Their paper, published in Nature Machine Intelligence, could ultimately aid the development of more reliable and better performing machine-learning algorithms for a variety of applications.

"Most people pick a predictive machine-learning technique and examine which variables are important or relevant to its predictions afterwards," Jiayun Dong, one of the researchers who carried out the study, told TechXplore. "What if there were two models that had similar performance but used wildly different variables? If that was the case, an analyst could make a mistake and think that one variable is important, when in fact, there is a different, equally good model for which a totally different set of variables is important."

Dong and his colleague Cynthia Rudin introduced a method that researchers can use to examine the importance of variables for a variety of almost-optimal predictive models. This approach, which they refer to as "variable importance clouds," could be used to gain a better understanding of machine-learning models before selecting the most promising to complete a given task.

The term "variable importance clouds" comes from the idea that there are several models (i.e., a whole "cloud" of them) that one can assess in terms of variable importance. These clouds can help researchers to identify variables that are important and those that are not. Typically, the importance of one variable implies that another variable is less important (i.e., does not guide a given model's predictions as much).


This is an interesting signal of a plausible future internet - one that could also include Google’s project Loon and it’s own quantum capabilities.

Drones could help create a quantum internet

Scientists have used octocopters to send entangled photons to distant locations
Scientists have now used drones to transmit particles of light, or photons, that share the quantum linkage called entanglement. The photons were sent to two locations a kilometer apart, researchers from Nanjing University in China report in a study to appear in Physical Review Letters.

Entangled quantum particles can retain their interconnected properties even when separated by long distances. Such counterintuitive behavior can be harnessed to allow new types of communication. Eventually, scientists aim to build a global quantum internet that relies on transmitting quantum particles to enable ultrasecure communications by using the particles to create secret codes to encrypt messages. A quantum internet could also allow distant quantum computers to work together, or perform experiments that test the limits of quantum physics.

Quantum networks made with fiber-optic cables are already beginning to be used. And a quantum satellite can transmit photons across China. Drones could serve as another technology for such networks, with the advantages of being easily movable as well as relatively quick and cheap to deploy.


I’ve been thinking about our domestication of DNA for a few years now. It seems that there’s more to know about DNA.
"A different DNA shape will have an enormous impact on all processes involving it—such as reading, copying, or expressing genetic information.
"Evidence has been mounting that G-quadruplexes play an important role in a wide variety of processes vital for life, and in a range of diseases, but the missing link has been imaging this structure directly in living cells."

Rare quadruple-helix DNA found in living human cells with glowing probes

New probes allow scientists to see four-stranded DNA interacting with molecules inside living human cells, unraveling its role in cellular processes.
DNA usually forms the classic double helix shape of two strands wound around each other. While DNA can form some more exotic shapes in test tubes, few are seen in real living cells.

However, four-stranded DNA, known as G-quadruplex, has recently been seen forming naturally in human cells. Now, in new research published today in Nature Communications, a team led by Imperial College London scientists have created new probes that can see how G-quadruplexes are interacting with other molecules inside living cells.


An amazing signal - maybe bring real hope to so many people with paralysis.
Not only did motor neurons near the site of injection begin to produce hIL-6 themselves, but they passed it along through axonal side branches to other neurons responsible for actions like walking. And sure enough, within a few weeks the mice regained function in their hind legs, even after just a single injection.

Designer protein helps paralyzed mice walk again in breakthrough study

In a new study, German scientists have restored the ability to walk in mice that had been paralyzed after a complete spinal cord injury. The team created a “designer” signaling protein and injected it into the animals’ brains, stimulating their nerve cells to regenerate and share the recipe to make the protein.

Spinal cord injuries are among the most debilitating. Damaged nerve fibers (axons) may no longer be able to transmit signals between the brain and muscles, often resulting in paralysis to the lower limbs. Worse still, these axons cannot regenerate.

Previous studies have shown promise in restoring some limb function through spinal stimulation therapy, or by bypassing the injury site altogether. Other promising research in similar areas has involved using compounds that restore balance to the inhibitory/excitatory signals in the neurons of partially paralyzed mice, and transplanting regenerating nose nerve cells into the spines of injured dogs.

But in the new study, researchers from Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB) in Germany took a different path, aiming to repair the damaged axons with a protein they call hyper-interleukin-6 (hIL-6). As the name suggests, this is a synthetic version of a naturally occurring peptide, which has been tweaked to stimulate nerve cell regeneration.


I love this signal of the future of manufacturing and materials creation.
"We foresee a future where diverse materials could be grown at home or in local production facilities, using biology rather than resource-intensive centralized manufacturing," says Timothy Lu, an MIT associate professor of electrical engineering and computer science and of biological engineering.

Inspired by kombucha tea, engineers create 'living materials'

Engineers at MIT and Imperial College London have developed a new way to generate tough, functional materials using a mixture of bacteria and yeast similar to the "kombucha mother" used to ferment tea.

Using this mixture, also called a SCOBY (symbiotic culture of bacteria and yeast), the researchers were able to produce cellulose embedded with enzymes that can perform a variety of functions, such as sensing environmental pollutants. They also showed that they could incorporate yeast directly into the material, creating "living materials" that could be used to purify water or to make "smart" packaging materials that can detect damage.

Lu and Tom Ellis, a professor of bioengineering at Imperial College London, are the senior authors of the paper, which appears today in Nature Materials. The paper's lead authors are MIT graduate student Tzu-Chieh Tang and Cambridge University postdoc Charlie Gilbert.

To demonstrate the potential of their microbe culture, which they call "Syn-SCOBY," the researchers created a material incorporating yeast that senses estradiol, which is sometimes found as an environmental pollutant. In another version, they used a strain of yeast that produces a glowing protein called luciferase when exposed to blue light. These yeasts could be swapped out for other strains that detect other pollutants, metals, or pathogens.


I love this signal of metabolic plastic - Personally I don’t want to ban plastic - I want to ban landfill and create plastic that can be metabolized easily into new forms or new materials.
additional functionality could be added to this versatile polymer by binding other chemical groups such as fluorescent probes or dyes to the sugar molecule, for biological or chemical sensing applications
This polymer is particularly versatile because its physical and chemicals properties can be tweaked easily, to make a crystalline material or more of a flexible rubber, as well as to introduce very specific chemical functionalities

Scientists make sustainable polymer from sugars in wood

Scientists from the University of Bath have made a sustainable polymer using the second most abundant sugar in nature, xylose.

Not only does the new nature-inspired material reduce reliance on crude oil products, but its properties can also be easily controlled to make the material flexible or crystalline.

The researchers, from the University's Centre for Sustainable and Circular Technologies, report the polymer, from the polyether family, has a variety of applications, including as a building block for polyurethane, used in mattresses and shoe soles; as a bio-derived alternative to polyethylene glycol, a chemical widely used in bio-medicine; or to polyethylene oxide, sometimes used as electrolyte in batteries.


This is a good signal - showing the positive power of the open community of idea - technology - the Internet - and people with good intentions.

Guy Struggles Picking Up His Parkinson’s Meds, TikToker Helps By Designing Pill Bottle For People With Shaky Hands

It is estimated that around 10 million people in the world live with Parkinson’s disease. If you’re not aware, Parkinson’s is a brain disorder that leads the person to experience shaking, muscle stiffness, and difficulty with walking, balance, and coordination.

One of the most renowned and inspiring people with Parkinson’s disease (PD), Jimmy Choi, went to TikTok to rant about the pill containers that his Parkinson’s medication comes in—despite it being for PD patients, it’s not really designed for that.

Another TikTok user saw this and was heartbroken, prompting him to come up with a solution to this.


The future of food promises all manner of new sources of nourishment.

Yellow mealworm safe for humans to eat, says EU food safety agency

Move paves way for high-protein maggot-like insect to be approved for consumption across Europe
Yellow mealworm finger foods, smoothies, biscuits, pasta and burgers could soon be mass produced across Europe after the insect became the first to be found safe for human consumption by the EU food safety agency.

The delicacies may not be advisable for everyone, however. Those with prawn and dustmite allergies are likely to suffer a reaction to the Tenebrio molitor larvae, whether eaten in powder form as part of a recipe or as a crunchy snack, perhaps dipped in chocolate.

The conclusion of scientists at the EU food safety agency, following an application by France’s first insect-for-food production company, Micronutris, is expected to lead to EU-wide approval within months of yellow mealworm as a product fit for supermarket shelves and kitchen pantries across the continent.



#micropoem


but the visioning -

was so cone-of-possibilities - 
linear-intuitive constrained - 
old-dogs who know the world - 
smart young pups -
ready to game the world - 
betting the future -
is playing probabilities smartly -
blind to wise paradox - 
kons -


The cat is in superposition - 
unalive-undead -

The cat observed -
COLLAPSES into 'a' state -
unalive -
undead - 

We are observing a world in a superposition
of possibilities - 
Can we can observe it -
in such a way - 
that it collapses - 
to a better -
alive-ness -

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Friday Thinking 15 Jan 2021

Friday Thinking is a humble curation of my foraging in the digital environment. Choices are based on my own curiosity and that suggest we are in the midst of a change in the conditions of change - a phase-transition. That tomorrow will be radically unlike yesterday.

Many thanks to those who enjoy this.
In the 21st Century curiosity is what skills the cat -
for life of skillful means .
Jobs are dying - Work is just beginning.
Work that engages our whole self becomes play that works.

The emerging world-of-connected-everything - digital environment - 
computational ecology - 
may still require humans as the consciousness of its own existence. 

To see red - is to know other colors - without the ground of others - there is no figure - differences that make a defference.  

‘There are times, ‘when I catch myself believing there is something which is separate from something else.’

“I'm not failing - I'm Learning"
Quellcrist Falconer - Altered Carbon




Apple has now arrogated to itself the power to know, with a reasonable degree of granularity, which programs its custom­ers are using, and to decide whether customers should be permitted to do so. Nothing in this surveillance system prevents it from being used against legitimate software. Nothing prevents it from being used to extract surveil­lance data about Apple customers – for example, to determine where you are, or whether there is anyone else there with you running a Mac. The only thing that stops Apple from blocking you from running legitimate apps – or from gathering information about your movements and social activities – is its goodwill and good judgment, and therein lies the problem.

The security researcher (and Hugo Award-nominee) Bruce Schneier has a name for this arrangement: he calls it feudal security. Here in the 21st century, we are beset by all manner of digital bandits, from identity thieves, to stalkers, to corporate and government spies, to harassers. There is no way for us to defend ourselves: even skilled technologists who administer their own networked services are no match for the bandits. To keep bandits out, you have to be perfect and perfectly vigilant, and never make a single mistake. For the bandits to get you, they need merely find a single mistake that you’ve made.

To be safe, then, you have to ally yourself with a warlord. Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and a few others have built massive fortresses bristling with defenses, whose parapets are stalked by the most ferocious cybermerce­naries money can buy, and they will defend you from every attacker – except for their employers. If the warlord turns on you, you’re defenseless.

the thing that gives tech companies the power to overrule your choices on your computers and devices is that they’re not really yours. Thanks to onerous licensing terms and bizarre retrofits to copyright and patent law, the only entities who can truly be said to “own” anything are aristocratic corporations, who may have to capitulate to the king, but owe no fealty to us, the peasants.

That’s how Facebook can roll out a new Oculus VR headset that is tied to your Facebook account – if you resign from (or get kicked off of) Facebook, your VR headset turns into a brick. It’s not really yours. Rather, you are a tenant of Facebook’s, which has graciously extended the use of its property to you for the low price of $400.

Neofeudalism and the Digital Manor




The fungal and mammalian kingdoms seem to have arrived independently at a strategy of using disordered sequences in mechanisms based on condensation, Jedd said, “but they’re using it for entirely different reasons, in different compartments.”

A Newfound Source of Cellular Order in the Chemistry of Life




Greene, like many others who take this view, is upbeat about it: free will is a perfectly valid fiction when we’re telling the “higher-level story” of human behaviour. You can’t change anything that will happen, but you should merrily go on thinking and doing “as if” you can with all the attendant moral implications. Maybe this picture works for you; maybe it doesn’t. But in this view, you have no say about that either.

But is free will really undermined by the determinism of physical law? I think such arguments are not even wrong; they are simply misconceived. They don’t recognize how cause and effect work, and by attempting to claim too much jurisdiction for fundamental physics they are not really scientific but metaphysical.

Forget all the “as if” gloss: reducing all behaviour to deterministic physics unfolding from the Big Bang offers us no genuine behavioural science at all, as it denies choice and puts nothing in its place that can help us understand and anticipate what we see in the world.

Surely, then, we have to choose one or the other? No, we can have both. It’s simply a matter of recognizing distinct domains of knowledge – of accepting that at certain levels of reductionism, some explanatory power vanishes while some is newly acquired. It is not because of the sheer overwhelming complexity of the calculations that we don’t attempt to use quantum chromodynamics to analyse the works of Dickens. It is because this would apply a theory beyond its applicable domain, so the attempt would fail. Greene presents the matter as a hierarchy of “nested stories”, each level supplying the underlying explanation of the next. But that’s the wrong image. To regard every form of human enquiry, from evolutionary theory to literary criticism, as a kind of renormalized physics is as hubristic as it is absurd.

There is good reason to believe that causation can flow from the top down in complex systems – work by Erik Hoel of Tufts University in Massachusetts and others has shown as much. The condensed-matter physicist and Nobel laureate Philip Anderson anticipated such notions in his 1972 essay “More is different” (Science 177 393). “The ability to reduce everything to simple fundamental laws does not imply the ability to start from those laws and reconstruct the universe,” he wrote. “The behaviour of large and complex aggregates of elementary particles, it turns out, is not to be understood in terms of a simple extrapolation of the properties of a few particles. Instead, at each level of complexity entirely new properties appear, and the understanding of the new behaviours requires research which I think is as fundamental in its nature as any other.”

Why free will is beyond physics





Yes it’s now definitely 2021 and who knows where this year will take us? This very long read is well worth it as the discussion involves some deep imaginers of the future - past and present. A must read for …. 

Just speaking for myself, not for Bruce or Malka, I want to include

this disclaimer… 

Our contemporary media reality is a world of opinions, and opinions of opinions. Our media sense organs are clogged with the cruft of opinion, we hear little else.  Factual accounts are occluded by excess of interpretation. 

Like everyone, my sense of the state of the world depends on what I perceive through intermediaries.  My sense of reality is inevitably distorted, especially as I'm sheltering in place and depending more than ever on media for access to the world. 
So I encourage you to take my  "state of the world" observations with a block of salt. The experiences I can best and most accurately describe are daily life experiences on the home front, with occasional forays into the surrounding environment - walking  around the 'hood, or driving around the city, rarely stopping to enter a store. Other than that, there are virtual social experiences via platforms like Zoom - I have plenty of those. 

the State of the World is best described as "diseased."  There's a huge pandemic well under way, and if you're looking for the major change driver in world affairs, that disaster is pretty much it.

The year 2021 is not merely about the Rona, but the Rona's implications will touch everything and everybody.  Adversity is 

revealing of character, and nine months of world plague to date have been revelatory.

State of the World 2021

This is our 20th annual State of the World conversation.  The longer we go, the weirder the world gets! SOTW 2021 promises to be the weirdest yet, with the world evolving along the lines of the most extreme cyberpunk fever dreams.

Every year this conversation is hosted by the WELL, an online community that started as a BBS and has been around for 35 years. If you're not a member of the WELL and want to add a comment or question here, just send via email to inkwell at well.com - include "state of the world" or "SOTW" in the subject of the message.

Bruce Sterling, Malka Older, and I will be posting our observations and having a conversation here for two weeks (January 5-18) - so if you find it interesting, keep coming back.

Bruce Sterling is a futurist, journalist, science-fiction author and design critic. He's written many science fiction novels including his seminal work on the Mirrorshades anthology, which defined the cyberpunk genre. 

Jon Lebkowsky is a digital culture maven, podcaster, writer, and dabbler in strategic foresight thinking. He cohosts the Plutopia podcast. He's been a member of the WELL, and a host of WELL conversations, for almost three decades.

Our special guest Malka Older is a writer, aid worker, and sociologist. Her science-fiction political thriller  Infomocracy was named one of the best books of 2016 by Kirkus, Book Riot, and the Washington Post. She is a Faculty Associate at Arizona State University’s School for the Future of Innovation in Society and her opinions can be found in The New York Times, The Nation, Foreign Policy, and NBC THINK, among other places.


This is a very interesting signal about the relationship between complexity, diversity and the environment - one that should support how the digital domains can contribute to economic diversity as well.
parts of the planet that are diverse biologically and culturally are even more diverse than you'd expect. This led to the title of their article: "Diversity begets diversity.

New work provides insight into the relationship between complexity and diversity

Most forms of life—species of mammals, birds, plants, reptiles, amphibians, etc.—are most diverse at Earth's equator and least diverse at the poles. This distribution is called the latitudinal gradient of biodiversity.

A group of Santa Fe Institute collaborators was intrigued by the fact that human cultural diversity shows exactly the same distribution with latitude: human cultures are more diverse near the equator and least at the poles. Their big question was: why? Life is more diverse within richer environments, but it's not clear why human cultural diversity would show this pattern too.

The group developed a theory to show that this is because not only can richer environments hold more species but richer environments are also more interactive, so there are more niches available, more competition, cooperation, mutualisms, etc. Because richer environments are also more complex environments, you tend to find more species and languages.


Speaking of complexity - this is a vital signal for us all to understand - especially as it relates to the world of information economics, knowledge and its governance and the digital environment.

The Complexity of Increasing Returns

While the idea of increasing returns—the tendency for what is ahead to get further ahead—has been part of economics since the pin factory, it was long resisted by economists. The reasons were both simple and profound.

For decades, economists had a strong preference for models with a single equilibrium. This preference was incompatible with the idea of increasing returns.
.... These lead to multiple equilibria, runaway monopolies, and sensitivity to initial conditions (chaos). Yet it was by embracing increasing returns that economists like Brian Arthur (1996) were able to transcend economics’ fear of complexity and blaze the trail that embraced it. Increasing returns can emerge from multiple sources, such as knowledge accumulation (learning) or network externalities.

Knowledge, and more precisely learning, implies increasing returns and narrow windows of opportunity. Seizing these short-lived windows of opportunity requires timely industrial policies. This represents an extremely uncomfortable reality for developing nations, especially those that have enjoyed some success with policies that are compatible with decreasing returns. When business leaders are involved in industries where diminishing returns are the norm, they tend to resist policies that would make no sense in their sectors.

But as the knowledge economy accelerates, those who wait to see how things play out will be left behind. By the time they know what is next, early adopters will be atop mountains of knowledge that will be even harder to climb. The challenge is to conquer a spot on the mountain before it grows taller, if one wants to escape the grip of the invisible hand.


I know my head feels like it’s spinning - this is only the second week of 2021 - maybe this interesting earth fact is related.

The Earth has been spinning faster lately

Scientists around the world have noted that the Earth has been spinning on its axis faster lately—the fastest ever recorded. Several scientists have spoken to the press about the unusual phenomenon, with some pointing out that this past year saw some of the shortest days ever recorded.

For most of the history of mankind, time has been marked by the 24-hour day/night cycle (with some alterations made for convenience as the seasons change). The cycle is governed by the speed at which the planet spins on its axis. Because of that, the length of a day has become the standard by which time is marked—each day lasts approximately 86,400 seconds. The day/night cycle is remarkably consistent despite the fact that it actually varies slightly on a regular basis.

Several decades ago, the development of atomic clocks began allowing scientists to record the passage of time in incredibly small increments, in turn, allowing for measuring the length of a given day down to the millisecond. And that has led to the discovery that the spin of the planet is actually far more variable than once thought. Since such measurements began, scientists have also found that the Earth was slowing its spin very gradually (compensated by the insertion of a leap second now and then)—until this past year, when it began spinning faster—so much so that some in the field have begun to wonder if a negative leap negative second might be needed this year, an unprecedented suggestion. Scientists also noted that this past summer, on July 19, the shortest day ever was recorded—it was 1.4602 milliseconds shorter than the standard.


I believe it was in Robertson Davies’ novel ‘Fifth Business’ that there is a character - a doctor - who does analysis of people’s poo - as a means of prognosticating their health. This article is a signal of a new public health tool and perhaps a new personal use for ‘smart toilets’ to giving us daily reports.

Wastewater-based epidemiology: a 20-year journey may pay off for Covid-19

When I entered public service in 1991 as a research scientist with the Environmental Protection Agency, its attention was focused on the impact of pesticides and industrial chemicals on humans and wildlife.

A breakthrough came eight years later with an article I wrote with my colleague Thomas Ternes describing what would eventually become known as the exposome — the totality of exposure over time to all stressors, chemical and nonchemical alike. We showed that a far larger spectrum of chemicals not normally found in the human body that can elicit subtle or profound effects on health enter the environment via sewage treatment plants. These include pharmaceuticals, personal care products, their breakdown products, and more.

That led me to envision sewage treatment plants as a tool for not only tracking an emerging class of pollutants but also for monitoring the overall status of community-wide health or disease. This concept has become known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE).


This is an inevitable signal of the use of biotechnologies for competitive advantages - and perhaps in the future permanent enhancements. - The questions that will inevitably raise challenges concern the evolving definitions of what are the boundaries of the ‘natural’. 

Detecting CRISPR/Cas gene doping

All athletes want to be at the top of their game when they compete, but some resort to nefarious approaches to achieve peak muscle growth, speed and agility. Recent developments in gene editing technology could tempt athletes to change their DNA to get an edge. Now, researchers reporting in ACS' Analytical Chemistry demonstrate first steps toward detecting this type of doping both in human plasma and in live mice.

The gene editing method called CRISPR/Cas is a popular way for scientists to precisely change the DNA in many organisms, and it recently gained even more attention when key developers of the method were awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. With this method, researchers add an RNA molecule and a protein into cells. The RNA molecule guides the protein to the appropriate DNA sequence, and then the protein cuts DNA, like a pair of scissors, to allow alterations. Despite the ethical concerns that have been raised about the method's potential application in humans, some athletes could ignore the risks and misuse it to alter their genes. Because CRISPR/Cas changes DNA, it is considered "gene doping" and is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency, an independent international organization. A sufficient method to detect CRISPR/Cas gene editing needs to be developed, however. So, Mario Thevis and colleagues wanted to see whether they could identify the protein most likely to be used in this type of doping, Cas9 from the bacteria Streptococcus pyogenes (SpCas9), in human plasma samples and in mouse models.


This is a very good signal of quantum phenomena operating in biological systems - from quantum tunneling to entanglement - a lot still remains to be understood.
“We’ve not modified or added anything to these cells,” says Jonathan Woodward, co-lead author of the study. “We think we have extremely strong evidence that we’ve observed a purely quantum mechanical process affecting chemical activity at the cellular level.”

Scientists observe live cells responding to magnetic fields for first time

One of the most remarkable “sixth” senses in the animal kingdom is magnetoreception – the ability to detect magnetic fields – but exactly how it works remains a mystery. Now, researchers in Japan may have found a crucial piece of the puzzle, making the first observations of live, unaltered cells responding to magnetic fields.

Many animals are known to navigate by sensing the Earth’s magnetic field, including birds, bats, eels, whales and, according to some studies, perhaps even humans. However, the exact mechanism at play in vertebrates isn’t well understood. One hypothesis suggests it’s the result of a symbiotic relationship between the animals and magnetic field-sensing bacteria.

But the leading hypothesis involves chemical reactions induced in cells through what’s called the radical pair mechanism. Essentially, if certain molecules are excited by light, electrons can jump between them to their neighbors. That can create pairs of molecules with a single electron each, known as a radical pair. If the electrons in those molecules have matching spin states, they will undergo chemical reactions slowly, and if they’re opposites the reactions occur faster. Since magnetic fields can influence electron spin states, they could induce chemical reactions that change an animals’ behavior.


Moore’s Law is Dead - long live Moore’s Law - but with multiple simultaneous computational paradigms emerging.

Machine learning at the speed of light: New paper demonstrates use of photonic structures for AI

As we enter the next chapter of the digital age, data traffic continues to grow exponentially. To further enhance artificial intelligence and machine learning, computers will need the ability to process vast amounts of data as quickly and as efficiently as possible.

Conventional computing methods are not up to the task, but in looking for a solution, researchers have seen the light—literally.

Light-based processors, called photonic processors, enable computers to complete complex calculations at incredible speeds. New research published this week in the journal Nature examines the potential of photonic processors for artificial intelligence applications. The results demonstrate for the first time that these devices can process information rapidly and in parallel, something that today's electronic chips cannot do.

"Neural networks 'learn' by taking in huge sets of data and recognizing patterns through a series of algorithms," explained Nathan Youngblood, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering and co-lead author. "This new processor would allow it to run multiple calculations at the same time, using different optical wavelengths for each calculation. The challenge we wanted to address is integration: How can we do computations using light in a way that's scalable and efficient?"


A great signal of the future of the networks and computational paradigms.

The world's first integrated quantum communication network

Chinese scientists have established the world's first integrated quantum communication network, combining over 700 optical fibers on the ground with two ground-to-satellite links to achieve quantum key distribution over a total distance of 4,600 kilometers for users across the country. The team, led by Jianwei Pan, Yuao Chen, Chengzhi Peng from the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, reported in Nature their latest advances towards the global, practical application of such a network for future communications.

Unlike conventional encryption, quantum communication is considered unhackable and therefore the future of secure information transfer for banks, power grids and other sectors. The core of quantum communication is quantum key distribution (QKD), which uses the quantum states of particles—e.g. photons—to form a string of zeros and ones, while any eavesdropping between the sender and the receiver will change this string or key and be noticed immediately. So far, the most common QKD technology uses optical fibers for transmissions over several hundred kilometers, with high stability but considerable channel loss. Another major QKD technology uses the free space between satellites and ground stations for thousand-kilometer-level transmissions. In 2016, China launched the world's first quantum communication satellite (QUESS, or Mozi/Micius) and achieved QKD with two ground stations which are 2,600 km apart. In 2017, an over 2,000-km long optical fiber network was completed for QKD between Beijing and Shanghai.


The CDC estimates that 1 in 54 people are on the autism spectrum - but there still is no basic accepted theory. This is an important signal of progress in our understanding.
McDonald's theory, titled 'The Broader Autism Phenotype Constellation-Disability Matrix Paradigm (BAPCO-DMAP) Theory,' is consistent with the current science on the genetics of autism but shifts the focus to positive traits of autism and to historical events that changed the prevalence of autism in society.
"The (BAPCO) traits are not what people expect. They expect the traits to be about challenges or difficulties, but instead there are six main traits—increased attention, increased memory, a preference for the object world vs. the social world and their environment, increased nonconformity, increased differences in sensory and perception, as well as systemizing."

Autism theory 25 years in the making

A unifying explanation of the cause of autism and the reason for its rising prevalence has eluded scientists for decades, but a theoretical model published in the journal Medical Hypotheses describes the cause as a combination of socially valued traits, common in autism, and any number of co-occurring disabilities.

T.A. Meridian McDonald, Ph.D., a research instructor in Neurology at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, has spent 25 years researching autism, from a time she could read literally every research paper on the topic in the 1990s until now, when there is an overload of such studies.

"Up until now there have been a lot of theories about the possible causes of autism but none of those theories account for the majority of autism cases," McDonald said. "There are also a lot of theories as to why the prevalence of autism has been increasing in the population but, to date, there hasn't been a theory that provides an explanatory model that accounts for all of those phenomena, including the genetics, social history, or characteristics of autism."




#micropoem 

I just realized -
that the #hypecycle -
needs a last stage of
development - 
entry to -
peak hype to -
skeptic-trough - 
mainstream adoption - 
and finally - 
to weaponized -
i’ve been media-stream-newsing -
most of the day - 
the amateur-yahoo-coop - 
so many affordances - 
so astounding - 

 

learning about
misdirection - 
awakens the possibility of -
Misdirecting-misdirection - 
emerging a con-spiral-sea