Friday Thinking is a humble curation of my foraging in the digital environment. My purpose is to pick interesting pieces, based on my own curiosity (and the curiosity of the many interesting people I follow), about developments in some key domains (work, organization, social-economy, intelligence, domestication of DNA, energy, etc.) that suggest we are in the midst of a change in the conditions of change - a phase-transition. That tomorrow will be radically unlike yesterday.
Many thanks to those who enjoy this. ☺
In the 21st Century curiosity will SKILL the cat.
Jobs are dying - Work is just beginning.
Work that engages our whole self becomes play that works.
Techne = Knowledge-as-Know-How :: Technology = Embodied Know-How
In the 21st century - the planet is the little school house in the galaxy.
Citizenship is the battlefield of the 21st Century
“Be careful what you ‘insta-google-tweet-face’”
Woody Harrelson - Triple 9
Content
Quotes:
Articles:
Nate Silver is one of the most highly regarded statisticians of sports, politics and other domains. During the 2016 presidential campaign, his early analysis of the chances of Donald Trump becoming Republican nominee stands out—he estimated only a 2% probability. Even though statistics are not about actualities but probabilities, subsequent events do not appear to be consistent with those predictions, as he later acknowledged. He has explained the problem with the analysis as due to political factors, and in terms of the difficulty of analysis, but not why the model he used is essentially flawed. Here we point out fundamental problems with the statistical ideas he uses. Statistics begins from an assumption of independence, which is generally not valid. In this case, the assumptions lead to mathematical inconsistencies. This illustrates how statistics can lead to illogic even for sophisticated users. Indeed, perhaps it is more likely to mislead those who are sophisticated—a cautionary tale.
Applying statistics is tricky. Despite the issues we raise here, Silver has made mathematics of real world problems a much more highly respected endeavor and he should be given much credit for doing so.
Statistical assumptions are used because they make calculations possible. But if the assumptions are wrong, so are the calculations.
What should be done? Silver has written a thoughtful lessons learned [4] pointing to the importance of complexity, feedback loops and chaotic dynamics. Incorporating the mathematical frameworks that these processes refer to will advance analyses beyond statistics to enable better mathematical prediction. Being concerned about interdependence, like the concerns about Brexit causing problems for Europe, is not enough. We need to understand interdependence in order to make correct assumptions, and derive correct conclusions.
A LESSON IN THE ERRORS OF STATISTICAL THINKING
The rub lies in another observation: that the evidence for causation seems to lie entirely in correlations. But for seeing correlations, we would have no clue about causation. The only reason we discovered that smoking causes lung cancer, for example, is that we observed correlations in that particular circumstance. And thus a puzzle arises: if causation cannot be reduced to correlation, how can correlation serve as evidence of causation?
Data may help us predict what will happen—so well, in fact, that computers can drive cars and beat humans at very sophisticated games of strategy, from chess and Go to Jeopardy!—but even today’s most sophisticated techniques of statistical machine learning can’t make the data tell us why. For Pearl, the missing ingredient is a “model of reality,” which crucially depends on causes. Modern machines, he contends against a chorus of enthusiasts, are nothing like our minds.
how do we decide which causal models to test in the first place? For Pearl, they are provided by the theorist on the basis of background information, plausible conjectures, or even blind guesses, rather than being derived from the data.
(“We collect data only after we posit the causal model,” Pearl insists, “after we state the scientific query we wish to answer. . . . This contrasts with the traditional statistical approach . . . which does not even have a causal model.”) Sometimes the data may refute a theory. Sometimes we find that none of the data we have at hand can decide between a pair of competing causal hypotheses, but new data we could acquire would allow us to do so. And sometimes we find that no data at all can serve to distinguish the hypotheses.
what philosophers have called the “underdetermination of theory by evidence”—means that all theories are fallible: the data cannot entail that the theory is correct. Some particularly sensitive souls find this epistemic gap intolerable; as a result, many sciences have recurrent movements to purge “theoretical” postulates altogether and somehow frame the science as statements about the structure of the observable data alone.
The Why of the World
A recent review in Trends in Ecology & Evolution argues that this phenomenon reveals something fundamental about how new species form. Old variants recast in new roles may sometimes be more important role in the origin of species than new mutations are. And hybridization — long considered an evolutionary dead end — instead acts as a catalyst for combining old gene variants in new ways, fueling rapid diversification.
The evolutionary biologists David Marques and Ole Seehausen at the University of Bern and Joana Meier at the University of Cambridge call this new view of the origin of species combinatorial speciation.
“All this new genomic data so clearly shows that speciation in animals and plants often works by building linkages, including between old genetic variants,” Seehausen said. “We need to ask ourselves: Is this a very common mechanism compared to the classical view?”
the accumulated genomic evidence warrants the introduction of “combinatorial speciation” as a new term to frame future research. The word “combinatorial,” seemed to best describe the crucial “generation of new combinations from existing variation, which is really the commonality.”
New Hybrid Species Remix Old Genes Creatively
We make a mistake when we assume that money is the main motivation. Our unreformed, corrupt and corrupting political funding system ensures it is an important factor. But what counts above all else is ideology, as ideology successfully pursued is the means to power. You cannot exercise true power over other people unless you can shape the way they think, and shape their behaviour on the basis of that thought. The long-term interests of ideology differ from the short-term interests of politics.
The insidious ideology pushing us towards a Brexit cliff-edge
This is an excellent podcast about the potentially emerging new economic paradigm - well worth the listen for anyone interested in an alternative to neoliberal economic pseudo-science :)
The MMT Podcast with Patricia Pino & Christian Reilly
The MMT Podcast offers economic analysis on current issues from a Modern Monetary Theory perspective. Aimed at anyone who has ever felt lost in the jargon used by mainstream economics commentators. We believe economics is for everyone
This is a vital signal for anyone concerned with economic justice, democracy and the rule of laws of-for-by democratically determined societies.
"TNCs have become a defining feature of the interconnected planet of people and nature, with humans as a hyper-dominant species in the biosphere affecting global patterns of ecological change."
A Handful of Super-Corporations Control The Fate of The World, Chilling Report Shows
A small group of super-powerful corporations has become a dominant force that essentially controls human industry and shapes the modern world we live in, scientists say.
In a new study, an international team of researchers suggests that this elite cadre of dominant transnational corporations (TNCs, sometimes also called multinationals) may wield an outsized influence over the planet and its inhabitants.
"The scale at which TNCs operate, and the speed and connectivity they galvanise across the world is unprecedented in history," the researchers, led by environmental scientist Carl Folke from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, explain in their new paper.
Of course, these kinds of observations are not new. We can easily note the impact of super-corporations almost everywhere in human industry.
This is a strong signal - for re-imagining how we enable community in the digital environment. What I really don't like about this - is the inherent business model that appropriates personal information to become a ‘rent-seeker’ between people as neighbors and vendors.
However, this would be a wonderful model for a foundation that doesn't rely on advertising or marketing to sustain the service - something like ‘Wiki-Communities’
I have managed a community Listserv since 2001 - which now has over 910 members of the local neighbourhoods. It serves many of the functions noted in the article - but without sharing personal information to any 3rd parties - and is funded by one of the local community associations.
'I know all their pet peeves' – why neighbourhood apps are a mixed blessing
Sites such as Nextdoor are growing in popularity, offering the chance for people to get to know their neighbours. This can lead to friendship and community – but there are definite downsides
Nick Lisher runs the site Nextdoor (https://nextdoor.co.uk/ ) in the UK, which took over streetlife.co.uk in 2017. Nextdoor is an US social media firm with operations in 10 other countries. It provides a platform very similar to Facebook, but instead of connecting friends, it connects neighbours, who may not know each other at all and share only a neighbourhood. In Lisher’s experience, ordinary motives bring people to Nextdoor first. “We don’t have better machines to help you find a plumber than Google does,” he says, “but sometimes a neighbour is better than an algorithm.” Although the company doesn’t release user numbers, the Nextdoor neighbourhoods so far created apparently cover 90% of the UK. In a few places more than 60% of the households are said to be subscribers, but from our straw poll of readers it seems that muddling through on Facebook or WhatsApp is much more widespread.
I can’t imagine any technology that can’t be weaponized in some ways - and this in spite of also simultaneously providing benefit - a very simple example is the domestication of fire and pyro technologies - providing warmth and the capacity to cook our foods - while also dealing death in countless ways.
Here is a strong signal of not only the weaponizing of technology but a signal of the need to develop new institutions of vigilance for how technology is being applied.
Simjacker attack exploited in the wild to track users for at least two years
Simjacker attack abuses STK and S@T Browser technologies installed on some SIM cards.
Security researchers have disclosed today an SMS-based attack method being abused in the real world by a surveillance vendor to track and monitor individuals.
"We are quite confident that this exploit has been developed by a specific private company that works with governments to monitor individuals," security researchers from AdaptiveMobile Security said in a report released today.
"We believe this vulnerability has been exploited for at least the last 2 years by a highly sophisticated threat actor in multiple countries, primarily for the purposes of surveillance."
Researchers described this attack as "a huge jump in complexity and sophistication" compared to attacks previously seen over mobile networks and "a considerable escalation in the skillset and abilities of attackers."
Simjacker begins with an attacker using a smartphone, a GSM modem, or any A2P (application-to-person) service to send an SMS message to a victim's phone number.
These SMS messages contain hidden SIM Toolkit (STK) instructions that are supported by a device's S@T Browser, an application that resides on the SIM card, rather than the phone.
The S@T Browser and the STK instructions are an old technology supported on some mobile networks and their SIM cards. They can be used to trigger actions on a device, like launching browsers, playing sounds, or showing popups. In the old age of mobile networks, operators used these protocols to send users promotional offers or provide billing information.
the Simjacker attack is completely silent. Victims don't see any SMS messages inside their inboxes or outboxes. This allows threat actors to continously bombard victims with SMS messages and keep track of their location as they move through the day, week, or month.
Furthermore, because Simjack exploits a technology residing on the SIM card, the attack also works independently of the user's device type.
This is a good signal of the emerging digital environment with an accelerated data atmosphere. More Data Faster.
What Silicon Photonics Delivers at 1200 Gigabits Per Second
Acacia demonstrates 1.2-terabit per second, single-wavelength data rates meant to slake the insatiable demands of data centers or transport 400-gig traffic a hundred times farther.
Fiber-optic data rates on a single wavelength will take a big step up later this month. Acacia Communications says it will demonstrate a 1.2-terabit-per-second module at the European Conference on Optical Communications (ECOC) that is taking place from 22-26 September in Dublin. Transmission of up to 800 gigabits per second on a single wavelength was introduced for the first time this March at the Optical Fiber Communications Conference (OFC) in San Diego. Both meetings are cosponsored by IEEE.
The explosive growth of cloud computing and traffic between data centers has given network operators a tremendous thirst for bandwidth on scales including those for transmission inside data centers at the network edge and for submarine cable stretching more than 10,000 kilometers. Data centers have long relied on coherent optical transmission of 100-gigabit Ethernet signals on each of many separate wavelengths carried by an optical fiber. Now operators have begun shifting traffic at busy data centers to 400-Gigabit Ethernet. With cloud data centers now mirrored around the globe, operators also are pushing for ever-increasing capacities for transoceanic submarine cables, most recently the Pacific Light Cable capable of carrying 144 terabits per second between Hong Kong and Los Angeles.
The crucial elements of those transmission systems are modules that convert digital signals between electronic and optical forms. They require both photonic circuits that convert digital signals between electronic and optical formats, and powerful digital signal processing (DSP) chips that extract error-free signals from the noise that accumulates during high-speed transmission. In 2017, Acacia introduced its 1.2-T Pico DSP chip, which operates at 1200 gigabits per second, and later was integrated into a module that split it into a pair of 600-gigabit signals for transmission on two separate wavelengths.
In this era of the sixth mass extinction - it is surprising to discover a new species of large mammal. There is still a lot to learn about our own world.
New whale species discovered along the coast of Hokkaido
In a collaboration between the National Museum of Nature and Science, Hokkaido University, Iwate University, and the United States National Museum of Natural History, a beaked whale species which has long been called Kurotsuchikujira (black Baird's beaked whale) by local Hokkaido whalers has been confirmed as the new cetacean species Berardius minimus (B. minimus).
Beaked whales prefer deep ocean waters and have a long diving capacity, making them hard to see and inadequately understood. The Stranding Network Hokkaido, a research group founded and managed by Professor Takashi F. Matsuishi of Hokkaido University, collected six stranded unidentified beaked whales along the coasts of the Okhotsk Sea.
The whales shared characteristics of B. bairdii (Baird's beaked whale) and were classified as belonging to the same genus Berardius. However, a number of distinguishable external characteristics, such as body proportions and color, led the researchers to investigate whether these beaked whales belong to a currently unclassified species.
Metaphors can be powerful ways to reason in new ways about old and new things. This is an important signal about the world of code - whether it’s computer or biological code.
When Biology Becomes Software
With a biological system, the code could instead increase the likelihood of multiple types of leukemias and wipe out cells important to the patient's immune system.
We have known the mechanics of DNA for some 60 plus years. The field of modern biotechnology began in 1972 when Paul Berg joined one virus gene to another and produced the first "recombinant" virus. Synthetic biology arose in the early 2000s when biologists adopted the mindset of engineers; instead of moving single genes around, they designed complex genetic circuits.
In 2010 Craig Venter and his colleagues recreated the genome of a simple bacterium. More recently, researchers at the Medical Research Council Laboratory of Molecular Biology in Britain created a new, more streamlined version of E. coli. In both cases the researchers created what could arguably be called new forms of life.
This is the new bioengineering, and it will only get more powerful. Today you can write DNA code in the same way a computer programmer writes computer code. Then you can use a DNA synthesizer or order DNA from a commercial vendor, and then use precision editing tools such as CRISPR to "run" it in an already existing organism, from a virus to a wheat plant to a person.
In the future, it may be possible to build an entire complex organism such as a dog or cat, or recreate an extinct mammoth (currently underway). Today, biotech companies are developing new gene therapies, and international consortia are addressing the feasibility and ethics of making changes to human genomes that could be passed down to succeeding generations.
Within the biological science community, urgent conversations are occurring about "cyberbiosecurity," an admittedly contested term which exists between biological and information systems where vulnerabilities in one can affect the other. These can include the security of DNA databanks, the fidelity of transmission of those data, and information hazards associated with specific DNA sequences that could encode novel pathogens for which no cures exist.
As the digital environment itself evolves in complexity we may be faced with challenges on par with our own biology when we consider implementing new hardware. We have rigorous protocols and regulations including human trials before we approve new drugs and devices. This is an important signal about the evolving complexity of our hardware ecologies.
"While NetCAT is powerful even with only minimal assumptions, we believe that we have merely scratched the surface of possibilities for network-based cache attacks, and we expect similar attacks based on NetCAT in the future,"
Weakness in Intel chips lets researchers steal encrypted SSH keystrokes
DDIO makes servers faster. It can also allow rogue servers to covertly steal data.
In late 2011, Intel introduced a performance enhancement to its line of server processors that allowed network cards and other peripherals to connect directly to a CPU's last-level cache, rather than following the standard (and significantly longer) path through the server's main memory. By avoiding system memory, Intel's DDIO—short for Data-Direct I/O—increased input/output bandwidth and reduced latency and power consumption.
Now, researchers are warning that, in certain scenarios, attackers can abuse DDIO to obtain keystrokes and possibly other types of sensitive data that flow through the memory of vulnerable servers. The most serious form of attack can take place in data centers and cloud environments that have both DDIO and remote direct memory access enabled to allow servers to exchange data. A server leased by a malicious hacker could abuse the vulnerability to attack other customers. To prove their point, the researchers devised an attack that allows a server to steal keystrokes typed into the protected SSH (or secure shell session) established between another server and an application server.
The researchers have named their attack NetCAT, short for Network Cache ATtack. Their research is prompting an advisory for Intel that effectively recommends turning off either DDIO or RDMA in untrusted networks. The researchers say future attacks may be able to steal other types of data, possibly even when RDMA isn't enabled. They are also advising hardware makers do a better job of securing microarchitectural enhancements before putting them into billions of real-world servers.
I think this is way bigger news than its size would suggest - the dust mote sensor get ever closer. The image has to be seen to understand how small this is.
World's smallest accelerometer points to new era in wearables, gaming
In what could be a breakthrough for body sensor and navigation technologies, researchers at KTH have developed the smallest accelerometer yet reported, using the highly conductive nanomaterial, graphene.
Each passing day, nanotechnology and the potential for graphene material make new progress. The latest step forward is a tiny accelerometer made with graphene by an international research team involving KTH Royal Institute of Technology, RWTH Aachen University and Research Institute AMO GmbH, Aachen.
Among the conceivable applications are monitoring systems for cardiovascular diseases and ultra-sensitive wearable and portable motion-capture technologies.
This is a great signal of inevitable development of better transportation systems.
Tesla battery researcher unveils new cell that could last 1 million miles in ‘robot taxis’
The cars currently built are all designed for a million miles of operation. The drive unit is designed, tested, and validated for 1 million miles of operation.
the CEO claims that Tesla has a new battery coming up next year that will last a million miles.
Jeff Dahn and his lab, who are doing battery research for Tesla, have released test results for an impressive new battery cell that is going to be Tesla’s new million-mile battery, according to a source familiar with the matter.
The new battery tested is a Li-Ion battery cell with a next-generation “single crystal” NMC cathode and a new advanced electrolyte.
Dahn’s team have been extensively testing these cells and based on the results, they think that the battery could power an electric car “for over 1.6 million kilometers [1 million miles].”
Another signal of ongoing progress with prosthetics - which not only will aid amputees and others who have lost limbs - but just as importantly will also likely be applied to robot-like devices that extend our sense of self in a much broader environment.
“If you close your eyes, you will think that you have your own leg,” volunteer Savo Panic said in Serbian in a translated video released by the researchers.
A new prosthetic leg that senses touch reduces phantom pain
Agility and confidence while walking increased in two men who tested the device
A prosthetic leg that can feel helped two men walk faster, more smoothly and with greater confidence. The artificial leg, outfitted with sensors that detect pressure and motion, also curbed phantom pain that came from the men’s missing legs, researchers report online in Nature Medicine.
Restoring these missing signals may greatly improve the lives of people who rely on prosthetic limbs.
Neuroengineer Stanisa Raspopovic of EHT Zürich and colleagues tested the device in two men, both of whom had a leg amputated above the knee. Their new prosthetic legs were outfitted with seven sensors that detect foot pressure on the ground and one sensor that decodes the angles of the knee joint. Electrodes implanted on the sciatic nerve, just above the amputation site, then stimulated the nerve with signals from the sensors on the prosthesis.
And thinking about prosthetic and robotic hardiness - this is another significant signal - we are very far from the ‘Terminator’ stage - and with creative generativity we will remain far from it. There is a 1 min video illustration.
Soft Self-Healing Materials for Robots That Cannot Be Destroyed
It'll take more than having its fingers chopped off to stop this robot hand
If there’s one thing we know about robots, it’s that they break. They break, like, literally all the time. The software breaks. The hardware breaks. The bits that you think could never, ever, ever possibly break end up breaking just when you need them not to break the most, and then you have to try to explain what happened to your advisor who’s been standing there watching your robot fail and then stay up all night fixing the thing that seriously was not supposed to break.
While most of this is just a fundamental characteristic of robots that can’t be helped, the European Commission is funding a project called SHERO (Self HEaling soft RObotics) to try and solve at least some of those physical robot breaking problems through the use of structural materials that can autonomously heal themselves over and over again.
What these self-healing materials can do is really pretty amazing. The researchers are actually developing two different types—the first one heals itself when there’s an application of heat, either internally or externally, which gives some control over when and how the healing process starts. For example, if the robot is handling stuff that’s dirty, you’d want to get it cleaned up before healing it so that dirt doesn’t become embedded in the material. This could mean that the robot either takes itself to a heating station, or it could activate some kind of embedded heating mechanism to be more self-sufficient.
The second kind of self-healing material is autonomous, in that it will heal itself at room temperature without any additional input, and is probably more suitable for relatively minor scrapes and cracks.
Vital with the development of technologies of the extended mind is a capacity for monitoring and responding to inevitable unintended consequences.
Brain hack devices must be scrutinised, say top scientists
Devices that merge machines with the human brain need to be investigated, a study has said.
In future, "people could become telepathic to some degree" and being able to read someone else's thoughts raises ethical issues, experts said.
This could become especially worrying if those thoughts were shared with corporations.
Commercial products should not come from "a handful of companies", they added
In the study - iHuman: Blurring Lines between Mind and Machine - leading scientists at the UK's Royal Society lay out the opportunities and risks of brain-to-computer devices.
Such interfaces refer to gadgets, either implanted in the body or worn externally, that stimulate activity in either the brain or nervous system.
OK - the degree to which we are entangled with our microbiome and the care we must attend to it - seems to increase every day.
Mouthwash use could inhibit benefits of exercise, new research shows
Exercise is known to reduce blood pressure—but the activity of bacteria in our mouths may determine whether we experience this benefit, according to new research.
An international team of scientists has shown that the blood pressure-lowering effect of exercise is significantly reduced when people rinse their mouths with antibacterial mouthwash, rather than water—showing the importance of oral bacteria in cardiovascular health.
The study was led by the University of Plymouth in collaboration with the Centre of Genomic Regulation in Barcelona (Gabaldon's lab), Spain, and was published in the journal Free Radical Biology and Medicine.
"It's all to do with nitric oxide degrading into a compound called nitrate, which for years was thought to have no function in the body. But research over the last decade has shown that nitrate can be absorbed in the salivary glands and excreted with saliva in the mouth.
"Some species of bacteria in the mouth can use nitrate and convert into nitrite—a very important molecule that can enhance the production of nitric oxide in the body. And when nitrite in saliva is swallowed, part of this molecule is rapidly absorbed into the circulation and reduced back to nitric oxide. This helps to maintain a widening of blood vessels which leads to a sustained lowering of blood pressure after exercise.
Another good signal for transportation.
Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035, Study Says
Natural gas-fired power plants, which have crushed the economics of coal, are on the path to being undercut themselves by renewable power and big batteries, a study found.
By 2035, it will be more expensive to run 90% of gas plants being proposed in the U.S. than it will be to build new wind and solar farms equipped with storage systems, according to the report Monday from the Rocky Mountain Institute. It will happen so quickly that gas plants now on the drawing boards will become uneconomical before their owners finish paying for them, the study said.
The development would be a dramatic reversal of fortune for gas plants, which 20 years ago supplied less than 20% of electricity in the U.S. Today that share has jumped to 35% as hydraulic fracturing has made natural gas cheap and plentiful, forcing scores of coal plants to close nationwide.
Another important signal in the progress toward renewable and cheap energy - equally important is the challenge to the notion of ultimate ‘heat death’.
“This is honestly an experiment a high school student could do, and probably will do at some point,” Raman said. “The simplicity is what makes it compelling.”
This $30 Device Turns the Cold of Outer Space Into Renewable Energy
“It literally is generating visible light out of the darkness of the sky. This is not even paraphrasing, this is exactly what it is."
The sun can be a powerful source of renewable energy, but so can the night sky. Now, a team of scientists have created a device that turns the cold of space into enough electricity to power an LED light.
As described in a paper published on Thursday in the journal Joule, the device is based off of a thermoelectric generator that creates electricity from the difference in temperature between a "hot side" and a "cold side." The researchers—UCLA scientist Aaswath Raman, and Stanford scientists Wei Li and Shanhui Fan—decided to take this idea one step further and use the ambient environment of Earth as a heat source and the cold of outer space as one gigantic cold sink.
The prototype consists of four stilts supporting two plates sandwiched between a thermoelectric generator. One plate is aimed at the ground, the other at the sky. The downward-facing plate draws heat from the air around it, while the upward-facing plate is paired with an aluminum disk painted black. The disk acts as an emitter that radiates heat into space through Earth’s atmosphere, cooling the plate to below ambient temperature.
The cost of the materials totaled less than $30 USD, in part because the researchers wanted to see how cheaply the device could be made. They used a store-bought thermoelectric modulator, sheet metal, Styrofoam, and Saran Wrap. Buying in bulk would lower these costs, but future refinement of the product may increase others, Raman said.
